• M Tio Putra Salis Faculty of Information Technology, Universitas Budi Luhur, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Arif Bramantoro School of Computing and Informatics, Universiti Teknologi Brunei, Bandar Seri Begawan


Forecasting, ARIMA-GARCH, birth control pill, supply, demand.


The demand of birth control pill at National Population and Family Planning Agency in Ogan Komering Ilir district, South Sumatra, Indonesia is significantly high, and it varies from one sub-district to another. Consequently, supplying birth control pill becomes more complicated. To help this situation, an accurate forecasting on the demand of birth control pill is required. This paper proposes the combination of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to obtain the best model for forecasting. The data set used is within the period of January 2017 and December 2019. Three experimental scenarios were proposed to achieve the best result: 1) 80% training data and 20% test data; 2) 75 training data and 25% test data; and 3) 66% training data and 34% test data. The best model obtained is characterized with ARIMA (1,1,2) and GARCH (2,1).


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How to Cite

Putra Salis, M. T., & Bramantoro, A. (2022). FORECASTING THE DEMAND OF BIRTH CONTROL PILLS USING ARIMA-GARCH. Proceeding International Conference on Information Technology, Multimedia, Architecture, Design, and E-Business, 2, 208–217. Retrieved from